IDC Revises PC and Tablet Forecasts but Still Anticipates Growth in Commercial Demand

Due to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and weakening market sentiment—primarily in the consumer segment—IDC has lowered its traditional PC market forecast for 2025 and the following years. Global PC shipments are expected to reach 273 million units in 2025, a 3.7% increase year-over-year, though this is slightly below the previous forecast. After 2025, IDC expects less than 1% annual growth in the traditional PC market through 2029, partly due to volume stabilization following the Windows 11 transition. Meanwhile, tablet sales are also expected to remain weak: shipments in 2025 are projected to decline by 0.8% to 143.3 million units, with a slow drop to 141.6 million units by the end of 2029, largely due to market saturation.

"Price increases from U.S. tariffs combined with weak demand are negatively impacting the world’s largest PC market," said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Manager at IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "However, consumer demand is declining globally due to persistent macroeconomic challenges. Still, there are positives: workstation sales remain strong, and tablet demand in China is expected to rise in the near term thanks to consumer subsidies."

Besides device form factor trends, commercial demand is expected to be a primary growth driver in 2025. In 2024, commercial PC sales (including education PCs) grew by 2% due to several large deals and limited Windows 11 migrations. According to the chart below (not shown here), IDC expects hardware refresh projects in commercial and education sectors to be the main growth engines in 2025. Following typical Windows upgrade cycles, IDC believes that most companies will continue purchasing Windows 11 PCs through 2025. However, budget constraints may push some to opt for in-place upgrades or pay for extended support for Windows 10. Although AI PCs faced adoption challenges since launch, IDC expects a more robust ecosystem to emerge by late 2025, with most new PCs supporting GenAI by 2026.

"Given the global challenges, Japan offers much-needed double-digit growth this year," said Bryan Ma, Vice President of Devices Research. Businesses in Japan, including small and medium enterprises, are rapidly replacing PCs ahead of the end of Windows 10 support in October. Growth will naturally slow next year, but at least a major education project will help cushion the impact.”

Source: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53223325